I-soda ash idlala indima ebalulekileyo kumashishini amaninzi, apho ishishini leglasi lithatha malunga ne-60% yokusetyenziswa kwihlabathi liphela.
Iglasi yeshiti yeyona nxalenye inkulu kwimarike yeglasi, kwaye iglasi yesikhongozeli yeyona nxalenye yesibini ngobukhulu kwimarike yeglasi (Umfanekiso 1). Iglasi yokulawula ilanga esetyenziswa kwiiphaneli zelanga yeyona ndawo ikhula ngokukhawuleza kwimfuno.
Ngowama-2023, ukukhula kwemfuno yaseTshayina kuya kufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu kakhulu le-10%, kunye nokukhula okupheleleyo kweetoni ezizizigidi ezi-2.9. Imfuno yehlabathi ngaphandle kweTshayina yehle nge-3.2%.
Umthamo wokuvelisa umlotha wesoda uya kuhlala uzinzile ngokubanzi phakathi kowama-2018 nowama-2022, njengoko iiprojekthi ezininzi zokwandisa ezicwangcisiweyo zilibazisekile ngenxa yobhubhane we-COVID-19. Enyanisweni, iTshayina ilahlekelwe ngumthamo womlotha wesoda ngeli xesha.
Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula okubalulekileyo kwixesha elizayo kuza kuvela eTshayina, kuquka iitoni ezi-5 zezigidi zemveliso entsha engabizi kakhulu (yendalo) eza kuqala ukunyuka phakathi kowama-2023.
Zonke iiprojekthi ezinkulu zokwandisa eMelika kutshanje zenziwe yiGenesis, eza kuba nomthamo odibeneyo omalunga ne-1.2 yezigidi zeetoni ekupheleni kuka-2023.
Ngowama-2028, kulindeleke ukuba kongezwe iitoni ezili-18 lezigidi zamandla amatsha kwihlabathi liphela, apho ama-61% avela eTshayina kwaye ama-34% avela eMelika.
Njengoko amandla okuvelisa esanda, isiseko sobuchwepheshe siyatshintsha. Isabelo se-soda ash yendalo kumandla amatsha okuvelisa siyakhula. Isabelo sayo kumthamo wemveliso yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba sifikelele kwi-22% ngo-2028.
Iindleko zemveliso yesoda ash yendalo zihlala ziphantsi kakhulu kunezo zesoda ash ezenziweyo. Ngoko ke, utshintsho kwiteknoloji lutshintsha nexabiso lehlabathi. Ukhuphiswano lusekelwe kubonelelo, kwaye indawo apho amandla amatsha akhoyo iya kuchaphazela ukukhuphisana.
I-soda ash yikhemikhali esisiseko esetyenziswa kwizicelo zokusetyenziswa ezihambelana kakhulu nobomi bethu bemihla ngemihla. Ngoko ke, ukukhula kwemfuno ye-soda ash bekusoloko kuqhutywa ziimeko zoqoqosho ezisakhulayo. Nangona kunjalo, imfuno ye-soda ash ayisaqhutywa kukukhula koqoqosho kuphela; icandelo lokusingqongileyo nalo linegalelo ekukhuleni kwemfuno ye-soda ash.
Nangona kunjalo, amandla apheleleyo e-soda ash kwezi zicelo zokusetyenziswa kokugqibela kunzima ukuwaqikelela. Amathuba okusebenzisa i-soda ash kwiibhetri, kuquka neebhetri ze-lithium-ion, antsonkothile.
Kunjalo nangeglasi yelanga, kwaye ii-arhente zamandla zamazwe ngamazwe zihlala zihlaziya uqikelelo lwazo lwamandla elanga ukuya phezulu.
Urhwebo ludlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuvelisweni kothuthu lwesoda, njengoko amaziko okuvelisa engasoloko ekufutshane neendawo ezifunwa kakhulu, kwaye malunga nekota yothuthu lwesoda luthuthwa phakathi kwemimandla emikhulu.
I-United States, iTürkiye kunye neTshayina ngamazwe abalulekileyo kushishino ngenxa yempembelelo yawo kwimarike yokuthumela impahla. Kubavelisi baseMelika, imfuno evela kwiimarike zokuthumela impahla ngaphandle yeyona nto ibangela ukukhula okukhulu kunemarike yasekhaya evuthiweyo.
Ngokwesiko, abavelisi baseMelika baye bakhulisa imveliso yabo ngokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, bencediswa lulwakhiwo lweendleko ezikhuphisanayo. Iimarike eziphambili zokuthumela ziquka lonke elaseAsia (ngaphandle kweTshayina kunye nelizwekazi laseIndiya) kunye noMzantsi Melika.
Nangona isabelo sayo esiphantsi kurhwebo lwehlabathi, iTshayina inempembelelo enkulu kwimarike yehlabathi yesoda ash ngenxa yokuguquguquka kokuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe, njengoko sele sibonile kulo nyaka.
Njengoko kuphawuliwe apha ngasentla, iTshayina yongeze amandla amakhulu ngo-2023 nango-2024, nto leyo eyanyusa ulindelo lokuthengiswa okugqithisileyo, kodwa ukungeniswa kwemveliso eTshayina kufikelele kumanqanaba arekhodiweyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2024.
Kwangaxeshanye, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eMelika kunyuke nge-13% unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezintlanu zokuqala zalo nyaka, kwaye inzuzo enkulu ivela eTshayina.
Ukukhula kwemfuno eTshayina ngo-2023 kuya kuba namandla kakhulu, kufikelela kwiitoni ezimalunga nezigidi ezingama-31.4, ikakhulu ngenxa yeglasi yokulawula amandla elanga.
Umthamo wesoda ash eTshayina uza kwanda ngeetoni ezi-5.5 yezigidi ngo-2024, udlule ulindelo lwexesha elifutshane lwemfuno entsha.
Nangona kunjalo, ukukhula kwemfuno kuphinde kwadlula okulindelweyo kulo nyaka, apho imfuno ikhula ngama-27% unyaka nonyaka kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023. Ukuba izinga lokukhula langoku liyaqhubeka, umsantsa phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno eTshayina awusayi kuba mkhulu kakhulu.
Ilizwe liyaqhubeka nokwandisa amandla okuvelisa iiglasi zelanga, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba amandla apheleleyo afikelele kwiitoni ezingama-46 ezigidi ngoJulayi 2024.
Nangona kunjalo, amagunya aseTshayina akhathazekile malunga nomthamo omkhulu wemveliso yeglasi yelanga kwaye axoxa ngemigaqo-nkqubo ethintelayo. Kwangaxeshanye, umthamo we-photovoltaic ofakiweyo waseTshayina unyuke ngama-29% unyaka nonyaka ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi 2024, ngokutsho kweNational Energy Administration.
Nangona kunjalo, ishishini lokuvelisa iimodyuli ze-PV eTshayina kuthiwa lisebenza ngokulahlekelwa, nto leyo ebangela ukuba ezinye izityalo ezincinci zokuhlanganisa zingasebenzi okanye ziyeke ukuvelisa.
Kwangaxeshanye, uMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia unenani elikhulu lee-PV module assemblers, uninzi lwazo luphethwe ngabatyali-mali baseTshayina, abangabathengisi ababalulekileyo kwimarike yeePV modules zaseMelika.
Kubikwa ukuba ezinye izityalo zokudibanisa ziye zayeka ukuvelisa ngenxa yokuba urhulumente wase-US urhoxisile iholide yerhafu yokungenisa impahla. Iindawo eziphambili zokuthumela iiglasi zelanga zaseTshayina kumazwe aseMzantsi-mpuma Asia.
Nangona ukukhula kwemfuno yothuthu lwesoda eTshayina kufikelele kumanqanaba aphakamileyo, ukuguquguquka kwemfuno yothuthu lwesoda ngaphandle kweTshayina kwahlukahlukene ngakumbi. Apha ngezantsi kukho isishwankathelo esifutshane semfuno kwezinye iindawo zaseAsia naseMelika, sichaza ezinye zezi ndlela.
Izibalo-manani zokungenisa zibonelela ngesalathiso esiluncedo seendlela ezisetyenziswa ngayo imfuno yothuthu lwesoda kulo lonke elaseAsia (ngaphandle kweTshayina kunye nelizwekazi laseIndiya) ngenxa yomgangatho ophantsi wemveliso yasekuhlaleni.
Kwiinyanga zokuqala ezintlanu ukuya kwezintandathu zowama-2024, ukungeniswa kwempahla kulo mmandla kufikelele kwi-2 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo engaphezulu nge-4.7% kunangexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo (Umfanekiso 2).
Iglasi yelanga yeyona nto iphambili ekufuneni i-soda ash kulo lonke elase-Asia, kwaye iglasi yeshiti nayo inokuba negalelo elihle.
Njengoko kubonisiwe kuMfanekiso 3, kukho iiprojekthi ezininzi zamandla elanga kunye neglasi ethe tyaba ezicwangcisiweyo kulo mmandla ezinokongeza malunga ne-1 yezigidi zeetoni zemfuno entsha yesoda ash.
Nangona kunjalo, ishishini leglasi yelanga nalo lijongene nemingeni ethile. Iirhafu zamva nje ezifana nokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kunye neerhafu zokuthintela umbane ezibekwe yi-United States zinokuchaphazela ukuveliswa kweemodyuli ze-photovoltaic kumazwe afana neVietnam neMalaysia.
Iirhafu zezinto ezenziwe eTshayina zifuna abavelisi abakula mazwe ukuba bafumane izinto ezibalulekileyo kubaboneleli abangaphandle kweTshayina ukuze baphephe iirhafu eziphezulu. Oku kwandisa iindleko zemveliso, kwenza kube nzima uthungelwano lokubonelela, kwaye ekugqibeleni kuya kunciphisa ukhuphiswano lweephaneli ze-PV zaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia kwimarike yase-US.
Kuthiwa iiphaneli ezininzi ze-PV zaseTshayina kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia ziye zamisa imveliso ngoJuni ngenxa yerhafu, kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba imveliso iyeke kwakhona kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Ummandla waseMelika (ngaphandle kwe-US) uxhomekeke kakhulu ekungenisweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe. Ngoko ke, utshintsho olupheleleyo ekungenisweni kwempahla lunokuba luphawu oluhle lwemfuno esisiseko.
Idatha yamva nje yorhwebo ibonisa ukuguquguquka okungalunganga kokungenisa impahla kwiinyanga ezintlanu ukuya kwezisixhenxe zokuqala zonyaka, kwehle nge-12%, okanye iitoni ezingama-285,000 (Umfanekiso 4).
INorth America, ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ibone ukwehla okukhulu, kwehle ngama-23% okanye iitoni ezili-148,000. IMexico ibone ukwehla okukhulu. Icandelo elikhulu lemfuno yesoda ash eMexico, iglasi yesikhongozeli, lalibuthathaka ngenxa yemfuno ebuthathaka yeziselo ezinxilisayo. Imfuno yesoda ash iyonke eMexico ayilindelekanga ukuba inyuke kude kube ngu-2025.
Ukungeniswa kwempahla evela eMzantsi Melika nako kwehle kakhulu, nge-10% unyaka nonyaka. Ukungeniswa kwempahla eArgentina kwehle kakhulu, ngama-63% unyaka nonyaka.
Nangona kunjalo, njengoko kucwangciselwe ukuba kubekho iiprojekthi ezintsha ze-lithium kulo nyaka, ukungeniswa kwe-Argentina kufuneka kuphucuke (Umfanekiso 5).
Enyanisweni, i-lithium carbonate yeyona nto ibangela ukufunwa kwe-soda ash eMzantsi Melika. Nangona kukho ingcinga embi kutshanje malunga neshishini le-lithium njengommandla onexabiso eliphantsi, imbono yexesha eliphakathi nelide ilungile.
Amaxabiso okuthumela ngaphandle abathengisi abakhulu abonisa utshintsho kwindlela ezitshintsha ngayo iimarike zehlabathi (Umfanekiso 6). Amaxabiso eTshayina athanda ukuguquguquka kakhulu.
Ngowama-2023, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokuthumela ngaphandle laseTshayina yayiyi-US$360 ngetoni nganye ye-metric FOB, kwaye ekuqaleni kuka-2024, ixabiso laliyi-US$301 ngetoni nganye ye-metric FOB, kwaye ngoJuni, yehla yaya kwi-US$264 ngetoni nganye ye-metric FOB.
Okwangoku, ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle laseTurkey yayiyi-US$386 ngetoni nganye ye-metric FOB ekuqaleni kuka-2023, yayiyi-US$211 kuphela ngetoni nganye ye-metric FOB ngoDisemba ka-2023, kwaye yayiyi-US$193 kuphela ngetoni nganye ye-metric FOB ngoMeyi ka-2024.
Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi 2024, amaxabiso okuthumela ngaphandle e-US abe ngumyinge we-$230 ngetoni nganye ye-metric FAS, ngaphantsi kwexabiso eliphakathi lonyaka le-$298 ngetoni nganye ye-metric FAS ngo-2023.
Lilonke, ishishini le-soda ash kutshanje libonakalise iimpawu zomthamo ogqithisileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ukukhula kwemfuno eTshayina kungagcinwa, ukunikezelwa okugqithisileyo okunokwenzeka kusenokungabi kubi njengoko kusoyikwa.
Nangona kunjalo, uninzi lolu hlumo luvela kwicandelo lamandla acocekileyo, udidi olunemfuno egqibeleleyo ekunzima ukuliqikelela ngokuchanekileyo.
Icandelo le-OPIS elijongene nobuchwephesha bemarike yeekhemikhali, iDow Jones & Company, liza kubamba iNkomfa yeHlabathi yeSoda Ash yonyaka ye-17 eMalta ukususela nge-9 ukuya kwi-11 ka-Okthobha kulo nyaka. Umxholo wentlanganiso yonyaka uthi “I-Soda Ash Paradox”.
INgqungquthela yeHlabathi yeSoda Ash (jonga ekhohlo) iza kuhlanganisa iingcali zehlabathi kunye neenkokheli zoshishino ezivela kuzo zonke iindawo zemarike ukuze zive uqikelelo lweengcali zoshishino lwesoda ash kunye namashishini anxulumene nayo, zixoxe ngeendlela ezitshintsha ngayo imarike, imingeni kunye namathuba, kwaye zihlolisise impembelelo yokutshintsha kweendlela zemarike zehlabathi, kuquka nendlela imarike yaseTshayina eza kuyichaphazela ngayo ihlabathi.
Abafundi beGlass International banokufumana isaphulelo se-10% kwiitikiti zenkomfa besebenzisa ikhowudi ethi GLASS10.
UJess unguSekela Mhleli weGlass International. Ebefunda ukubhala ngobuchule nangobuchule ukusukela ngo-2017 waza wagqiba isidanga sakhe ngo-2020. Ngaphambi kokujoyina iQuartz Business Media, uJess wasebenza njengombhali ozimeleyo kwiinkampani ezahlukeneyo kunye neempapasho.